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South Asian summer monsoon : processes, prediction, and societal impacts /

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South Asian Summer Monsoon: Processes, Prediction, and Societal Impacts provides a stronger understanding of the monsoon environment and new information on the structure and dynamics of monsoon weather systems, onset and withdrawal processes, South Asian monsoon variability at all time scales, from...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Rajeevan, Madhavan Nair (Author), Mukhopadhyay, Parthasarathi (Author), Chakraborty, Arindam (Author)
Corporate Author: ScienceDirect (Online service)
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Amsterdam : Elsevier, 2025.
Subjects:
Monsoons > South Asia.
Moussons > Asie méridionale.
Electronic books.
Online Access:Connect to the full text of this electronic book
Table of Contents:
  • Front Cover
  • South Asian Summer Monsoon
  • Copyright Page
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • About the authors
  • Preface
  • Acknowledgments
  • 1 Introduction
  • 1.1 History of monsoons
  • 1.2 Drivers of monsoons
  • 1.2.1 Alternate hypothesis
  • 1.3 Global monsoons
  • 1.4 South Asian summer monsoon
  • 1.4.1 Previous studies
  • 1.4.2 Outline of the book
  • References
  • 2 Mean rainfall, theory, and role of oceans
  • 2.1 Large-scale circulation features
  • 2.1.1 Air temperatures
  • 2.1.2 Mean sea level pressure
  • 2.1.3 Upper air winds
  • 2.2 Monsoon clouds and radiation
  • 2.3 Monsoon monthly and seasonal rainfall
  • 2.3.1 Convective versus stratiform precipitation
  • 2.3.2 Coherence of seasonal rainfall
  • 2.3.3 Mean seasonal rainfall over other south Asian countries
  • 2.4 Theories of monsoon
  • 2.4.1 Land-sea contrast theory
  • 2.4.2 Energetics perspective
  • 2.4.3 Relevance to monsoon
  • 2.5 Role of orography
  • 2.6 Role of oceans
  • 2.7 Influence of other factors
  • 2.7.1 Role of aerosols
  • 2.7.2 Role of land surface
  • 2.8 Principles of paleoclimate
  • References
  • 3 Onset and withdrawal
  • 3.1 Monsoon onset
  • 3.1.1 Dynamic and synoptic setting of monsoon onset
  • 3.1.2 Role of Madden-Julian Oscillation, Intra-seasonal Oscillation
  • 3.1.3 Criteria for monsoon onset
  • 3.1.4 Progress of onset and onset isochrones
  • 3.1.5 Hiatus in monsoon progress
  • 3.1.6 Prediction of monsoon onset
  • 3.2 Monsoon withdrawal
  • 3.2.1 Statistics on monsoon progress and duration of monsoon season
  • 3.3 Monsoon onset and withdrawal over Bangladesh and Pakistan
  • References
  • 4 Semipermanent and synoptic systems
  • 4.1 Semipermanent systems
  • 4.1.1 Monsoon heat low
  • 4.1.2 South Asian High
  • 4.1.3 Tropical easterly jet
  • 4.1.4 The Mascarene High
  • 4.1.5 Low-level cross-equatorial flow
  • 4.1.6 Monsoon trough
  • 4.2 Synoptic systems.
  • 4.2.1 Monsoon depressions
  • 4.2.1.1 Climatology
  • 4.2.1.2 Rainfall associated with monsoon depressions
  • 4.2.1.3 Vertical structure
  • 4.2.1.4 Mechanisms of monsoon depressions
  • 4.2.2 Mid-tropospheric cyclone
  • 4.2.3 Offshore trough along the west coast
  • 4.2.4 Westerly troughs and lows
  • 4.2.5 Arabian Sea inversion
  • References
  • 5 Circulation and rainfall variability
  • 5.1 Diurnal variability
  • 5.2 Intraseasonal variability
  • 5.2.1 Monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (low-frequency mode)
  • 5.2.2 Monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (high-frequency mode)
  • 5.2.3 Monsoon active and break cycle
  • 5.2.4 Northward propagation of MISO
  • 5.3 Interannual variability
  • 5.3.1 Observed characteristics
  • 5.3.2 Dominant frequencies of interannual variations
  • 5.3.3 Empirical mode decomposition of ISMR
  • 5.3.4 Mechanism of interannual variations
  • 5.3.5 Teleconnection to El Nino/southern oscillation
  • 5.3.6 Interdecadal variations in ENSO-ISMR relationship
  • 5.3.7 Impact of preceding winter's El Nino southern oscillation
  • 5.3.8 Circulation and changes related to ENSO
  • 5.3.9 Role of other non-ENSO climate phenomena
  • 5.3.10 Role of Indian Ocean
  • 5.3.11 Role of tropospheric biennial oscillation
  • 5.3.12 Role of the Atlantic Ocean
  • 5.4 Decadal variability
  • References
  • Further reading
  • 6 Climate change perspectives
  • 6.1 Increase in surface air temperatures
  • 6.2 Long-term trends of circulation
  • 6.3 Observed trends of rainfall
  • 6.3.1 Long-term trends in mean ISMR
  • 6.3.2 Observed monsoon rainfall trends over Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan
  • 6.4 Extreme precipitation events
  • 6.4.1 Extreme precipitation events over India during June-September
  • 6.4.2 EPEs in other south Asian countries
  • 6.5 Trends in monsoon rainstorms
  • 6.6 Hydroclimatic intensity
  • 6.7 Monsoon droughts.
  • 6.8 Impact of aerosols on south Asian summer monsoon
  • 6.9 Future climate change projections
  • 6.9.1 Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models
  • 6.9.2 Projections of mean monsoon circulation
  • 6.9.3 Projected changes in mean monsoon precipitation
  • 6.9.4 Projected changes in extreme precipitation
  • 6.9.5 ENSO-south Asian summer monsoon in a warmer climate
  • References
  • 7 Short-medium and extended-range forecasts
  • 7.1 History of numerical weather prediction in India
  • 7.2 Basics of numerical weather prediction
  • 7.2.1 Numerical weather prediction model details
  • 7.3 Skill of short- to medium-range forecasts over the Indian region
  • 7.4 Skill of forecasts over Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh
  • 7.4.1 Bangladesh
  • 7.4.2 Nepal
  • 7.4.3 Pakistan
  • 7.5 Case studies of short-medium range forecasts
  • 7.6 Extended-range forecasts (up to 4 weeks)
  • 7.6.1 Basics of extended-range forecasts
  • 7.6.2 India Meteorological Department's extended-range forecasting system
  • 7.6.3 New extended-range forecasting system
  • References
  • 8 Seasonal and decadal predictions
  • 8.1 Introduction
  • 8.2 Basic premise of seasonal prediction
  • 8.3 Potential predictability
  • 8.4 History of long-range forecasting
  • 8.5 Statistical ensemble prediction system for Indian summer monsoon rainfall
  • 8.6 Dynamical seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall
  • 8.6.1 National monsoon mission efforts in India
  • 8.6.2 Seasonal predictions by US National Multi-Model Ensemble system
  • 8.6.3 Seasonal prediction by European climate models
  • 8.7 ENSO-ISMR relationships in seasonal prediction models
  • 8.8 Seasonal prediction efforts for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal
  • 8.9 Decadal monsoon predictions
  • References
  • 9 Sectoral applications
  • 9.1 Agriculture
  • 9.2 Health sector
  • 9.3 Renewable energy sector
  • 9.3.1 Wind energy.
  • 9.3.2 Solar energy
  • 9.4 Water management and flood warning systems
  • References
  • 10 Summary and future prospects
  • 10.1 Summary
  • 10.1.1 Importance
  • 10.1.2 Theory
  • 10.1.3 Rainfall climatology
  • 10.1.4 Circulation
  • 10.1.5 Variability and global teleconnection
  • 10.1.6 Long-term variations
  • 10.1.7 Short- and medium-range forecasts
  • 10.1.8 Seasonal forecast
  • 10.2 Gap areas and way forward
  • 10.3 Prospects of artificial intelligence/machine learning methods
  • References
  • Appendix A: Forecast verification methods
  • 1 Methods for dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts
  • 2 Methods for forecasts of continuous variables
  • Index
  • Back Cover.