http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-2.xsd
Intuitive predictions and professional forecasts
cognitive processes and social consequences
This volume discusses new approaches for the integration of cognitive psychology and professional forecasting, conceptual clarification of intuition and its role in predictions and forecasts. The authors present empirical tests of the theoretical assumptions in the area of psychiatric prognosis, election predictions and energy consumption forecasts. The book goes beyond the individual perspective and deals with technological problems and the social consequences of predictions. The reader is given a vivid overview for judgemental forecasting with special emphasis on practical problems.
Front Cover; Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts: Cognitive Processes and Social Consequences; Copyright Page; Acknowledgements; Table of Contents; Chapter 1. Intuition, lay predictions, and professional forecasts; 1.1 The role of prediction in daily life; 1.2 Lay predictions and professional forecasts; 1.3 Intuition and prediction; 1.4 The intuitive core of professional forecasts. Or: Why do we need a social psychology of prediction?; Chapter 2. Social psychological theories of prediction
2.1 Early attempts: Prediction as an interaction of situational characteristics and individual factors2.2 The role of cognitive structures and processes in predicting: Tversky and Kahneman's heuristics concept; 2.3 Contributions of other modern judgement research; 2.4 Laboratory versus ""real world"" use of heuristics; Chapter 3. Expanding and testing modern concepts for prediction; 3.1 Part 1: Individual factors and prediction; 3.2 Part 2: From individual predictions to professional forecasts; Chapter 4. The relevance of psychological concepts to the problem of prediction
4.1 The credibility of predictions4.2 How to evaluate predictions; 4.3 Integrating theoretical concepts; References; Index
Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002. http://purl.oclc.org/DLF/benchrepro0212 MiAaHDL
digitized 2010 HathiTrust Digital Library committed to preserve pda MiAaHDL
Includes bibliographical references (pages 162-176) and index.
Oxford [England] ; New York : Pergamon Press, 1990
International series in experimental social psychology ; v. 20