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The phantom pattern problem : the mirage of big data /

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Patterns in data are often used as evidence, but how can you tell if that evidence is worth believing? The Phantom Pattern Problem helps readers avoid being duped by data, tricked into worthless investing strategies, or scared out of getting vaccinations. Becoming a sceptical consumer of data is imp...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Smith, Gary, 1945- (Author), Cordes, Jay (Author)
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Oxford ; New York, NY : Oxford University Press, 2020.
Subjects:
Data mining.
Big data.
Quantitative research.
Data Mining
Exploration de données (Informatique)
Données volumineuses.
Recherche quantitative.
COMPUTERS.
SCIENCE.
Big data
Data mining
Quantitative research
Electronic books.
Online Access:Connect to the full text of this electronic book
Table of Contents:
  • Cover
  • The Phantom Pattern Problem
  • Copyright
  • Dedication
  • TABLE OF CONTENTS
  • INTRODUCTION: Surely You Jest
  • CHAPTER 1: Survival of the Sweaty Pattern Processors
  • Survival of the Sweatiest
  • Survival of the Smartest
  • Pattern Recognition
  • Childish Patterns
  • The Apple Didn't Fall Far From the Tree
  • Patterns Everywhere, Until They Aren't
  • Recognizing Faces
  • Deceptive Patterns
  • The Luckiest Baby Alive
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 2: Predicting What is Predictable
  • What is Causation?
  • Yellow Pebbles
  • Prediction
  • Measure Twice, Cut Once
  • Limeys Cured of Scurvy by Limes
  • The Gold Standard
  • A/B Tests
  • Post Hoc Reasoning
  • Good to So-So
  • Scuttlebutt
  • If You Love Your Job
  • Clever Tickers
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 3: Duped and Deceived
  • Malaria
  • Superstitions
  • Imagining Patterns
  • Memorable M Patterns
  • You Don't Split
  • If You Believe, It Will Happen
  • Monday the 6th
  • "47" Everywhere
  • Numerology
  • Cosmic Coincidences
  • It's All About Us
  • Bode's Law
  • Moore's Law
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 4: Fooled Again and Again
  • Flippers and Fakers
  • Drunken Steps
  • Warm Hands
  • Are You Picking on Me?
  • Slow Down and Shuffle
  • Settlers
  • Cancer Clusters
  • Smaller is Better (and Worse)
  • Standardized Tests
  • Violent Crimes
  • We're Number 1 (or Maybe Number 2)
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 5: The Paradox of Big Data
  • Introduction
  • Data Mining
  • Out-of-Sample Data
  • Crowding Out
  • Multiple Regression
  • Know Nothings
  • Immigrant Mothers and Their Daughters
  • Getting Over It
  • Predicting an Exchange Rate
  • Data Mining Trump's Tweets
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 6: Fruitless Searches
  • Google Trending the Stock Market.
  • Looking to the Stars
  • Google Trending Bitcoin
  • Predicting Unemployment
  • The Chinese Housing Bubble
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 7: The Reproducibility Crisis
  • Sloppy Science
  • You Are What Your Mother Eats
  • Zombie Studies
  • The Reproducibility Crisis: A Case Study
  • Count Them Up
  • The Charney Report
  • Skepticism vs Denialism
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 8: Who Stepped in It?
  • New Coke
  • Telling Bill Clinton the Truth
  • Stock Market Secrets
  • The Best Month to Buy Stocks
  • Portfolio Optimization
  • A System of the Month
  • Rolling Dice for Dollars
  • Where's the Beef?
  • Shopping for Dollars
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 9: Seeing Things for What They Are
  • The Peter Principle
  • Google
  • Controlled Experiments
  • Natural Experiments
  • Dr. Spock's Overlooked Women
  • Theory Before Data
  • Exuberant Expectations
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • EPILOGUE: All About That Bayes
  • Bayes' Theorem
  • Medical Diagnoses
  • Bayes' Rule in the Courtroom
  • Patterns and Posteriors
  • BIBLIOGRAPHY
  • INDEX.