http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-2.xsd
assessing uncertainty in international politics
Over the past two decades, the most serious problems with U.S. foreign policy have revolved around the challenge of assessing uncertainty. Past experiences have shown that there is an urgent need to find ways of improving the ways in which foreign policy analysts assess uncertainty, and the ways in which foreign policy decision makers account for risk when evaluating high-stakes choices. This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically.
Introduction : "One of the things you learn as president is that you're always dealing with probabilities" -- Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Practical implications and directions for further research.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
New York, NY : Oxford University Press, 2019
Bridging the gap (Oxford University Press)