http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-2.xsd
Using meteorology probability forecasts in operational hydrology
1 online resource (viii, 206 pages) : illustrations, maps
This book simplifies atmospheric predictions to enable laypeople to make their own derivative forecasts. Scientists and engineers can learn to predict weather-dependent phenomena to assess the risks associated with decisions in the construction and operation phases of water resources planning. This self-educating method simultaneously uses probabilistic meteorology forecasts over different time scales, time periods, spatial domains, probability statements, and meteorology variables. This practical, hands-on guide presents comprehensive and straightforward theory, procedures, and examples for using short-term, seasonal, and interannual forecasts of meteorology probabilities, which are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Environment Canada, and other agencies. The examples use different hydrology models and employ both user-defined and agency-produced meteorology probability forecasts in the United States and Canada. The examples also illustrate El Nino and La Nina conditional probabilities and examples of their derivation, as well as provide sufficient information for the reader's own applications. An extensive appendix describes the acquisition, installation, and use of freely available software to prepare historical files for individualized applications, to input forecast meteorology probabilities of a specific site, to extract reference quantile estimates, to prioritize forecasts, and to solve the resulting set of equations for derivative forecasts.
Practical Usage -- Probability and Estimation -- A Probability Measure -- Outcomes and Events -- Random Variables and Distributions -- Distribution Characteristics -- Estimation -- Quantile Estimation -- Outlook Definitions -- Deterministic Outlooks -- Probabilistic Outlooks -- Probabilistic Meteorology Outlook Examples -- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Outlooks -- NOAA 8-14 Day Event Probability Outlooks -- NOAA Ensemble Event Probability Forecast Products -- NOAA 1-Day Precipitation Event Probability Anomaly Outlooks -- El Nino- and La Nina-Based Event Probability Outlooks -- NOAA 6-10 Day Most-Probable Event Outlooks -- Environment Canada (EC) Monthly Most-probable Event Outlook -- EC Seasonal Most-probable Event Outlook -- EC Extended Seasonal Most-Probable Event Outlooks -- Other Most-Probable Event Outlooks -- Derivative Outlooks -- Derivative Deterministic Outlooks -- Derivative Probabilistic Outlooks -- Step-By-Step Instructions -- Extensions and Examples -- Multiple Meteorology Event Probabilities -- Considering Multiple Outlooks -- An Example Multiple Outlook Equation Set -- Solving the Set Equations -- Using the Weights -- Bayesian Forecasting -- Incompatible Outlook Periods -- Operational Hydrology Variations -- Sampling and Modeling Independence -- Alternative Solutions -- Redundancy and Infeasibility -- Optimum Solution -- Using the Weights -- Ordering Priorities -- Additional Methodology Considerations -- Mixing Most-Probable Meteorology Outlooks -- Matching Most-Probable Events.
Includes bibliographical references and index.