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Quantifying counterfactual military history
"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--
Could history have been otherwise? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Jutland? -- Could the Germans have won the Battle of Britain? -- Could the USA have prevailed in Vietnam? -- The road to Able Archer : counterfactual reasoning and the dangerous history of nuclear deterrence 1945-1983 -- Conclusions -- Appendix: Some mathematical background (with no equations).
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Dr Brennen Fagan is a postdoctoral research associatesupported bythe Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity and the Department of Mathematics at the University of York. He received his PhD in Mathematics, working with the York Historical Warfare Analysis Group to better understand human conflict by examining and modelling historical war data, and now studies the mathematics of biodiversity change. Dr Ian Horwood is a historian at York St John University, where he is Senior Lecturer. His principal interests are in US military history, airpower history and the wars in Indochina. Dr Horwood received his PhD in History from the University of Leeds. Professor Niall MacKay is a mathematician and theoretical physicist at the University of York. He has interests in military history, operations research and combat modelling. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Durham University. Dr Christopher Price is Senior Lecturer in History at York St John University. His main areas of interest are political, economic and military history in the twentieth century, especially British and US history in the period surrounding the Great Depression, the two World Wars and the Cold War. He received his PhD in History from the University of York. Professor Andrew James (Jamie) Wood is a mathematician and systems biologist at the University of York. He specializes in the simulation and analysis of complex systems, and has interests across a range of modern international history and the analysis of warfare. He received his PhD in Theoretical and Mathematical Physics from Imperial College London.
MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General
ASA-CRC series on statistical reasoning in science and society