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Continuity and contingency in USAF posture planning /

"Good posture planning must distinguish powerful long-term trends from headline-grabbing events, have sufficient breadth to capture a wide range of possible posture demands, and be robust in the face of the inevitable uncertainties about where, when, and how U.S. interests will be challenged. U...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Vick, Alan (Author)
Format: Book
Language:English
Published: Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2016]
Subjects:
United States. > Air Force > Operational readiness.
United States > Defenses > Planning.
National security > United States > Planning.
United States > Military policy > Planning.
Strategy.
United States. > Air Force.
Armed Forces > Operational readiness.
Military policy > Planning.
Military readiness > Planning.
National security > Planning.
United States.
Online Access:http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1400/RR1471/RAND_RR1471.pdf
Table of Contents:
  • Preface
  • Figures
  • Tables
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • Abbreviations
  • 1. Introduction: Background
  • Policy Problem
  • Purpose of This Document
  • A Simple Model of U.S. Global Posture
  • Organization
  • 2. Long-Term Conflict Trends: An Analysis of Historical Conflict Data: Conflict Trends: 1946 to 2014
  • Terrorist Attacks on the Rise Since 2004
  • Conclusions
  • 3. Strategy Choices and Posture Implications: Grand Strategy
  • Military Strategy
  • Conclusions
  • 4. Contingent Event Analysis: Introduction
  • Operational Vignette Development
  • Implications for USAF Posture
  • 5. Path Dependence in USAF Posture: Background
  • Path Dependent Processes
  • Path Dependence and Posture: Individual Bases
  • Country
  • Region
  • Global Base Network
  • Path Dependence in the Post- old War Era
  • Conclusions
  • 6. Path Aversion As a Constraint on Posture: Introduction
  • How Does Path Aversion Relate to Path Dependence?: Mechanisms and Dimensions of Path Aversion
  • The Vietnam Syndrome: A Case of Path Aversion in U.S. Foreign Policy?
  • The Vietnam Syndrome Weakens Under President Reagan: Central America (El Salvador)
  • Lebanon
  • Grenada
  • Conclusions
  • 7. Conclusions: Findings: Conflict Trends Are a Limited Guide for Long-Term Posture Planning
  • Unforeseen Crises or Conflicts Have Been the Primary Agents of Change in U.S. and USAF Global Posture
  • USAF Posture Is Characterized by Long Periods of Stability, Punctuated by Periods of Rapid Change
  • Path Aversion Can Constrain Posture, but Effects Tend to Be Fleeting
  • Geography Remains Relevant to Long-Term Posture Planning
  • Recommendations
  • Final Thoughts
  • Appendix. Polya Models and Simulations
  • Bibliography.