Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series /

Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series addresses some of the problems of modeling stationary and nonstationary time series primarily from a Bayesian stochastic regression "smoothness priors" state space point of view. Prior distributions on model coefficients are parametrized by hyperpa...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Kitagawa, Genshiro
Corporate Author: SpringerLink (Online service)
Other Authors: Gersch, Will
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: New York, NY : Springer New York : Imprint : Springer, 1996.
Series:Lecture notes in statistics (Springer-Verlag) ; 116.
Subjects:
Online Access:Connect to the full text of this electronic book
Description
Summary:Smoothness Priors Analysis of Time Series addresses some of the problems of modeling stationary and nonstationary time series primarily from a Bayesian stochastic regression "smoothness priors" state space point of view. Prior distributions on model coefficients are parametrized by hyperparameters. Maximizing the likelihood of a small number of hyperparameters permits the robust modeling of a time series with relatively complex structure and a very large number of implicitly inferred parameters. The critical statistical ideas in smoothness priors are the likelihood of the Bayesian model and the use of likelihood as a measure of the goodness of fit of the model. The emphasis is on a general state space approach in which the recursive conditional distributions for prediction, filtering, and smoothing are realized using a variety of nonstandard methods including numerical integration, a Gaussian mixture distribution-two filter smoothing formula, and a Monte Carlo "particle-path tracing" method in which the distributions are approximated by many realizations. The methods are applicable for modeling time series with complex structures.
Item Description:Electronic resource.
Physical Description:1 online resource (x, 280 pages 40 illustrations)
ISBN:9781461207610 (electronic bk.)
1461207614 (electronic bk.)