The economic impact of seasonal forecasts on the international wheat trade /
Until recently, skillful, or accurate, seasonal variability forecasts were not considered possible. That is changing. Meteorological research is uncovering linkages between components of the El Nińo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Nińo and La Nińa events, and seasonal variability across many regio...
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
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[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
2000.
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| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=728323511&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | Until recently, skillful, or accurate, seasonal variability forecasts were not considered possible. That is changing. Meteorological research is uncovering linkages between components of the El Nińo/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Nińo and La Nińa events, and seasonal variability across many regions of the world (Walker; Bjerknes 1966, 1969; Wyrtki; Ropelewski and Halpert 1986,1987,1989). ENSO anomalies are significant as they often precede predictable seasonal variability in precipitation and temperature by one to six months. Current knowledge regarding ENSO is sufficient, albeit imperfect, for studying the implications of seasonal forecasts for the agricultural sector. Producers' responses to climate forecasts may affect supply, prices, stocks, producer and consumer surplus and total national welfare. This study estimates potential welfare ramifications associated with producers' use of seasonal forecasts in wheat exporting countries. A dynamic-stochastic international wheat trade model is developed to achieve the objective. Two scenarios are compared. In scenario one, Australian, Canadian, and U.S. farmers base production decisions on historical seasonal variability without regard to seasonal forecasts. In scenario two, producers use ENSO based seasonal forecasts to adjust input usage and formulate price expectations. Modifications of field-level practices are translated into changes in exporting nations' wheat supplies to develop national supply incorporating seasonal forecasts. These supply and price expectation functions, are incorporated into a price endogenous trade model to predict supplies, stocks, and exports for the U.S., Australia, Canada, the European Union, Argentina, and Rest of World. Incorporating improved seasonal forecasts into production results in lower equilibrium prices for all countries. Australian and Canadian expected supplies, exports and producer surpluses increase while U.S. expected supplies, exports and producer surplus decline. Expected consumer surplus increases in all countries. However, the sequence of phases observed over a 25-year period affects the value of seasonal forecasts for any particular period. Results indicate society can potentially benefit from further investment in seasonal forecasting. |
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| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Agricultural Economics". |
| Physical Description: | xiii, 179 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilm Inc. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references (leaves 152-172). |