New approaches for analyzing and predicting global natural gas production /
Natural gas is becoming an increasingly important source of the world's energy. Estimating future supplies of this valuable commodity is an important economic and strategic endeavor. World gas supply forecasting has proved difficult because its exploration, transportation, and customer bases de...
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
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[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
2000.
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| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=728331611&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | Natural gas is becoming an increasingly important source of the world's energy. Estimating future supplies of this valuable commodity is an important economic and strategic endeavor. World gas supply forecasting has proved difficult because its exploration, transportation, and customer bases depend so heavily on fluctuating economic factors. This study showed that the conventional Hubbert model with one complete production cycle is not appropriate to use to forecast gas-production trends for most gas-producing countries. This study developed a "multicyclic Hubbert" approach that accurately models the gas-production history of each gas-producing country. It presents the multicyclic modeling approach in a convenient form that makes production data that exhibit two or more cycles easier to model. In this study, a new method was developed for predicting the peak production by determining the inflection points on the bell-shaped curve. This method is a useful tool to predict the peak production and its time of occurrence without constructing the Hubbert curve. This study also developed and analyzed supply models for world regions and for some organizations [e.g., the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the European Union (EU), and the Intl. Energy Agency (IEA)] This study indicates that the world ultimate recovery of natural gas will be around 10,000 Tcf, of which approximately 7,900 Tcf of recoverable gas remain to be produced by 1997 year-end. The results indicate that the world supply of natural gas will peak with a plateau production of 99 Tcf/yr from 2014 to 2017, with an annual depletion rate of 1%/yr. Based on the 1997 world gas production and the results of this study, the world supply of natural gas will continue for 96 years. Because of expected technology advances in gas exploration and drilling techniques, I consider the year 2017 as the world's peak of natural gas. In this study, too, a new approach to predict natural gas production for the United States was developed using an artificial neural network. Forecasting models for the neural network input variables were developed using stochastic modeling approach of time series analysis. In addition, this study derived a prediction model for U.S. gas production from stochastic models, and it presented a comparison of forecasts from different approaches. The network model proved useful as a short-term as well as a long-term predictive tool for future gas production. It can also be used to examine quantitatively the effects of the various physical and economic factors on future gas production. |
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| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Petroleum Engineering". |
| Physical Description: | xiv, 157 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilm Inc. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references (leaves 115-120). |