Real-time storm surge prediction for bays on the Texas Gulf coast /
This thesis presents a new, real-time storm surge forecast system constructed around the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model. ADCIRC is a finite element circulation model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers to model large domains, including entire ocean basins, over long periods of simulated time. The...
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| Format: | Thesis eBook |
| Language: | English |
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[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1999.
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| Online Access: | Link to OAKTrust copy |
| Summary: | This thesis presents a new, real-time storm surge forecast system constructed around the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model. ADCIRC is a finite element circulation model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers to model large domains, including entire ocean basins, over long periods of simulated time. The United Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) model of Cardone et at. (1992) is used to generate hurricane wind and pressure fields from the elementary characteristics of a storm for input into ADCIRC. The goal of this research was to develop a flexible system of models for harbors along the Texas coastline to predict storm surge levels during major storm events. The scope of this research incorporates three areas of interest along the Texas Gulf coast: Galveston Bay (including the Houston Ship Channel), Matagorda Bay, and Corpus Christi Bay (to the inlet of Laguna Madre). The results of the model system are presented for two historic storms, hurricanes Alicia and Carla, as well as for the recent tropical storm Frances. The simulation data for hurricane Alicia compare very well to the actual measured total water level increase cause by the storm. The model results for hurricane Carla poorly represent the measured water level increases for stations located along the entire Texas coastline. The model results for tropical storm Frances have shown that the correlation between long-term forecast water levels and those actually observed improved later in the life of the storm. Overall, the best correlation between model and measured data is seen in locations that are east of the center of the modeled storm. The error in the modeled surge levels results from the simple vortex flow representation of a hurricane wind field by the PBL model which oversimplifies the actual wind field of a hurricane, particularly as a storm approaches and passes over a coastal boundary. The lack of correlation between the model and observed data may also result from the method used to estimate the radius to maximum winds for a storm, from the work of Jelesnianski and Taylor (1973). An additional source of error in the forecast simulation for Frances is the forecast information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), particularly since Frances was not a well organized storm. |
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| Item Description: | "Major subject: Ocean Engineering". Vita. |
| Physical Description: | xiii, 115 leaves : illustrations, maps ; 28 cm. Also available online. Issued also on microfiche from Lange Micrographics. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references (leaves 66-70). |