The development of a seasonal climate forecast methodology for ITCZ associated rainfall applied to Eastern Africa /
: : Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilm Inc. A detailed examination is performed of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated rainfall over Eastern Africa. A methodology is developed for seasonal climate forecasting of IR-oz-associated rainfall which shows reasonably dependa...
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
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[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1998.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=733039421&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | : : Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilm Inc. A detailed examination is performed of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated rainfall over Eastern Africa. A methodology is developed for seasonal climate forecasting of IR-oz-associated rainfall which shows reasonably dependable predictability. Using this methodology, rainfall probability decision flowcharts are produced which are simple enough to use in seasonal forecast efforts by a variety of users. Their purpose is to provide improved predictive guidelines for forecasting either actual rainfall amounts or for an indication of rainfall trends three months in advance. Also explored is whether rainfall trends during the passage of the ITCZ can be determined by examining rainfall trends which occur earlier as the ITCZ traverses a region. The area of research is divided into four seasonal rainfall patterns, within four regions, corresponding to the latitudinal displacement of the ITCZ. The data are examined based on preceding conditions and minimal statistical assumptions and relationships are formulated within regions and between seasons. A time series visualization of ITCZ-associated rainfall dam is created by combining the regional indices for all four regions in sequential order through the period of study. Key relationships are found after examining the first-difference transformation of this seasonal time series. By examining the change (or first-difference transformation) between the rainfall indices of two regions, as they are traversed by the ITCZ, it is found that a forecast for the next region traversed can be made. It is further found that these predictive relationships can be improved upon towards the extremes of the data distributions and, during certain periods, associated with known teleconnections. Also explored is whether ITCZ-associated rainfall is influenced by insolation forcing and, whether or not any trends are evident in the rainfall record that may be attributable to climate change. This methodology may be used in rainfall forecast efforts to reduce risks in potentially "poor'' years and maximize gains in potentially "good'' years. The predictive results have direct relevance to many endeavors such as agricultural production and economics; and, the same methodology may be applicable to other tropical areas with similar monsoonal-type regimes. |
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| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Meteorology". |
| Physical Description: | xvi, 161 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references (leaves 142-146). |