Mexico-U.S.-Caribbean nations melon trade : a simulation analysis of economic forces and government policies /
Historically, Mexico was the primary foreign source of melons for the U.S. market. However, in recent years, Mexico's share of the U.S. melon markets has significantly declined while that of Caribbean nations increased. For example, during the 1970s and early 1980s, Mexico supplied more than...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1998.
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=737690551&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | Historically, Mexico was the primary foreign source of melons for the U.S. market. However, in recent years, Mexico's share of the U.S. melon markets has significantly declined while that of Caribbean nations increased. For example, during the 1970s and early 1980s, Mexico supplied more than 90% of U.S. cantaloupe imports whereas in recent years Mexico has supplied about 30% of the U.S. market. Similar declines in market share have been observed for honeydew and watermelon. The objective of this study is to empirically identify, measure, and forecast the effects of primary economic forces affecting United States, Mexico and Caribbean nations melon trade in winter and spring seasons. Analysis is accomplished with a price equilibrium econometric model of the U.S., Mexico and Caribbean nations cantaloupe, honeydew and watermelon industries. Initially a baseline forecast of endogenous variables in the melon trade model was carried out for the 1996-2004 period. The U.S. per capita consumption of cantaloupe and honeydew were projected to increase 31 and 14 percent, respectively, by 2004 while per capita consumption of watermelon declines by 8 percent. In addition, Mexico's share of the U.S. melon market continues to decline at the expense of gains by the Caribbean nations. Next, simulations are carried out to measure the effect of five alternative scenarios on melon trade. The analysis shows the 1994-1995 peso devaluation to have the greatest short-run influence on Mexico's ability to export while the largest long-run impact was associated with improvements in Mexican melon yields. Mexican agricultural labor cost and accelerated growth in Mexican per capita income have important impacts on melon exports but are of less importance than yields. In general, the tariff-reducing provisions of NAFTA have a comparatively modest influence on Mexico's ability to export to the United States. Mexican exports of melons to the U.S. during the December-May period have a limited impact on Texas shipments. This is because Texas production/shipments non-nally commence in the third week of May when Mexico has dramatically reduced exports to the U.S. The decline in Mexican exports is in response to the normal decline in U.S. market prices in this period. |
|---|---|
| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Agricultural Economics". |
| Physical Description: | xiv, 188 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilms Inc. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references: pages 181-185. |