Three essays in energy consumption : time series analysis /
Firstly, this dissertation investigates which demand specification is an appropriate model for long-run energy demand between the conventional demand specification and the limited demand specification In order to determine the components of a stable long-run demand for different sectors of the energ...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1997.
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=736561861&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | Firstly, this dissertation investigates which demand specification is an appropriate model for long-run energy demand between the conventional demand specification and the limited demand specification In order to determine the components of a stable long-run demand for different sectors of the energy industry, I perform cointegration tests by using the Johansen test procedure, First, I test the conventional demand specification including prices and income as components. Second, I test a limited demand specification only income as a component. The reason for performing these tests is that we can determine which demand specification is a good long-r-un predictor of energy consumption between the two demand specifications by using the cointegration tests. Secondly, for the purpose of planning and forecasting energy demand in case of cointegrated system, long-run elasticities are of particular interest. To retrieve the optimal level of energy demand in case of price shock, we need long-run elasticities rather than short-run elasticities. The energy demand study provides valuable information to the energy policy makers who are concerned about the long-run impact of taxes and tariffs. A long-run price elasticity is a primary barometer of the substitution effect between energy and non-energy inputs and long-run income elasticity is an important factor since we can measure the energy demand growing slowly or fast than in the past depending on the magnitude of long-run elasticity. The one other problem in estimating the total energy demand is that there exists an aggregation bias stemming from the process of summation in four different energy types for the total aggregation prices and total aggregation energy consumption. In order to measure the aggregation bias between the Btu aggregation method and the Divisia Index method, i.e., which methodology has less aggregation bias in the long-run, I compare the two estimation results with calculated results estimated on a disaggregated basis. Thus, we can confirm whether or not the theoretically superior methodology has less aggregation bias in empirical estimation. Thirdly, I investigate the causal relationships between m-energy use and GDP. In order to detect causal relationships both in the long-run and in the short-r-un, the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) can be used if there exists cointegration relationships among the variables. I detect the causal effects between energy use and GDP by estimating the VECM based on the multivariate production function including the labor and capital variables. |
|---|---|
| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Economics". |
| Physical Description: | ix, 83 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilms Inc. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references: pages 76-82. |