Effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. and Mexican fresh vegetable industries and trade /
This study is a comprehensive assessment of the possible
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
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[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1997.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=739842091&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | This study is a comprehensive assessment of the possible effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the US. and Mexican fresh vegetable markets and trade. The analysis focuses on tomatoes, onions, cucumbers, squash, and bell peppers which account for 85% of the U.S.-Mexico fresh vegetable trade. The specification of the model was based on a qualitative analysis of the production, economic, and policy-related characteristics of the U.S. and Mexican fresh vegetable industries. Application of the Barten method suggested the Rotterdam model to be the most appropriate demand system specification for both the winter and summer seasons. A separability test indicated that onion demand is weakly separable from the other fresh vegetables. Estimated gross complementarity among fresh vegetable demands prevented the Rotterdam demand system from being successfully integrated with supply and trade components into a non- spatial price-equilbrium simulation model of U.S.-Mexico fresh vegetable markets. An alternative single demand equation formulation was estimated and substituted for the complete demand system in the U. S.-Mexico fresh vegetable model. A separate annual model was estimated for onions. Both models were validated through historical simulation and sensitivity analysis. Simulation statistics indicated good performance and stability of the estimated models. The winter U.S.-Mexico fresh vegetable and onion models were used to establish a ten-year baseline forecast for US. imports of freash vegetables assuming the NAFTA tariff phase-out. The baseline forecast, conditional on FAPRI projections for the erogenous macroeconomic variables, indicated that although U.S. freash vegetable imports from Mexico will continue to grow over the next decade, the loss in market share for U.S. growers Will be modest over that period. The models were also used to simulate the likely effects of the main factors expected to influence the future level of US. fresh vegetable imports from Mexico over the next decade. The results suggest that while NAFTA is expected to boost US. imports, the peso devaluation clearly has had the largest impact on U.S. imports over the short term. Over the longer term, the largest effect on U.S. imports of fresh vegetables from Mexico, especially tomatoes, could come from a poor U.S. yield performance. |
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| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Agricultural Economics". |
| Physical Description: | xi, 199 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilms Inc. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references: pages 193-198. |