Forecasting the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index futures price : interest rates, dividend yields, and cointegration /

any of the other models considered, has the lowest forecast

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Fritsch, Roger Erwin
Format: Thesis eBook
Language:English
Published: [Place of publication not identified] : [publisher not identified] ; 1997.
Subjects:
Online Access:Link to OAKTrust copy
Description
Summary:any of the other models considered, has the lowest forecast
Daily Standard & Poor's 500 stock index cash and futures
error rate. This has the implications of affecting the way
forecasts from error correction models are compared to those
from vector autoregressions (VAR) fit to levels and VARs fit
interest rate and dividend yield data. Out-of-sample
Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. To account for the
of data on interest rates and dividend yields, rather than
prices are studies in a cointegration framework using
that forecasting and hedging models are constructed.
theoretical forward price series is constructed using
these price series as a VAR in levels and with the inclusion
time varying relationship(basis) between the two markets, a
to first differences. This comparison suggests that modeling
Item Description:"Major subject: Agricultural Economics".
In title, numerals are used.
Vita.
Physical Description:x, 57 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm.
Also available online.
Issued also on microfiche from Lange Micrographics.
Bibliography:Includes bibliographical references.