Modeling of construction cost data for probabilistic range estimating limited by small data sets of historical costs /
One of the difficulties in forecasting a future construction
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
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[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1996.
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| Summary: | One of the difficulties in forecasting a future construction cost for a given facility type is the process of modeling historic cost data as a probability distribution. This process is to facilitate a range estimating methodology wherein future construction costs are defined as having a given probability of not being exceeded. Modeling historic cost as a probability distribution is particularly difficult when there is a small data set available to the estimator. In such cases, more than one type of probability distribution may statistically satisfy the modeling requirements. This thesis documents the efforts to investigate the statistical impact on the final estimate of using different probability distributions for modeling historic construction cost data. Cost data of seven 2250 bed unit prison facilities, obtained from Texas Department of Criminal Justice are used for analysis. Methods of fitting sample data to different distribution types are reviewed. The problems associated with estimating the parameters of triangular distribution based on historical data are identified and a least squares minimization procedure to estimate the parameters of triangular distribution is proposed. Specifically, issues related to triangular, lognormal, gamma, beta, normal and uniform distributions are discussed. Based on the statistical impacts to the final cost estimate, lognormal or gamma distributions are recommended for modeling construction cost data. |
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| Item Description: | Vita. "Major subject: Civil Engineering". |
| Physical Description: | xiii, 153 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from Lange Micrographics. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references. |