A lightning summary and decision model for thunderstorm prediction at Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri /

(POD) of 100%. One summer equation had a CSI of 55%

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Bass, Randall Gerald, 1964-
Format: Thesis eBook
Language:English
Published: [Place of publication not identified] : [publisher not identified] ; 1996.
Subjects:
Online Access:Link to OAKTrust copy
Description
Summary:(POD) of 100%. One summer equation had a CSI of 55%
139xl85 kilometer area centered at Whiteman Air Force Base.
1500 CST) was detected. Last flash times tended to be
A cloud-to-ground lightning summary was developed for a
A preferred track for springtime thunderstorms was
Although diurnal distributions of lightning flashes
and early morning. The percentage of positive flashes
and POD of 85%. Two thunderstorm decision models were
combined responses from the equations with other
constructed using the seasonal regression equations and
could not be disregarded. The four spring and fall
disappeared during the fall. First flash times for
examined for thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm periods on a
fall. A summertime peak between 1800-2100 UTC (1200-
increase of negative flashes with peak currents below 20
kA was seen, but contamination by intracloud flashes
late afternoon and nocturnal maxima were observed during
located between the base and the Ozark Mountains. No
location. Skill scores for these models were higher
meteorological considerations.
model performed best with a CSI of 79% and POD of 100%.
nearly doubled in 1994 and 1995 compared to previous
on independent data, one spring equation had a critical
performed better than the two for summer. When tested
positive flashes with peak currents below 60 kA. An
preferred track was found during the other seasons.
random, but preferences were observed for early evening
regression equations for thunderstorm prediction
seasonal basis. Regression equations developed using these
several meteorological conditions such as frontal system
showed that thunderstorms were possible at any time,
Spatial and temporal patterns, and first stroke peak currents
success index (CSI) of 59% and probability of detection
than those for any individual equation. The spring
the spring and summer. The nocturnal maximum
thunderstorm events were spread out for the spring and
thunderstorm periods. Decision models were presented that
variables distinguished thunderstorm periods from non
were analyzed from 1989-1995. Stability indices were
years. An increase was observed in the number of
Item Description:"Major subject: Meteorology".
Vita.
Physical Description:xv, 138 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm.
Also available online.
Issued also on microfiche from Lange Micrographics.
Bibliography:Includes bibliographical references.