Modelling international trade in wheat /
The U.S. shows a strong dependence on the world market to
| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1995.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=742711851&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | The U.S. shows a strong dependence on the world market to account for the use of its own wheat output. The U.S. share of world trade has tended to decline over the last two decades. Both of these factors indicate the strong need for the ability to model and better understand the supply, demand and policy environments of other major world wheat exporters. The prime objective of this study is to determine and analyze the impacts of anticipated policy changes of major competitors in wheat trade. The wheat sectors of Argentina, Australia, Canada and the European Union are modeled, with the resulting equations and elasticities reported. Policy scenarios in these countries, mostly related to the general trend toward a more open trading environment, are used to simulate outcomes for 1995-2000. Finally, the profit function approach, used extensively with macroeconomic data, is applied to a specific agricultural commodity, wheat. The U.S. wheat and wheat flour sectors are modeled using the translog functional form. Short-run and medium-run price and quantity elasticities are estimated. Necessary assumptions on aggregation and returns- to-scale are made and tested. Whereas Canadian policy prices are very sensitive to policy and market developments in the U.S., policy prices in the E.U.-12 are well insulated from the world and U.S. market situation. Estimated elasticities are generally in line with those of other studies. With the continuation of the declining trend in levels of protectionism, Australia and Argentinas importance in the wheat market is expected to increase, with the E.U.12's vast export and production levels anticipated to decline. Canada's presence in world wheat markets would decline with the elimination of the transportation subsidy. Effects of such a measure on trade with the U.S. were not modelled. For the U.S. wheat sector, production for domestic use and for export must be aggregated, whereas flour exports and domestic use flour must be disaggregated. The constant-returns-to-scale condition is rejected for both the wheat and wheat milling sectors. The profit-maximization hypothesis cannot be rejected and produces reasonable elasticity estimates. |
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| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Agricultural Economics". |
| Physical Description: | x, 135 leaves ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilms Inc. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references. |