An analysis of agricultural risk implications of United States policy changes /
In recent years, politically popular downsizing of government
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
[Place of publication not identified] :
[publisher not identified] ;
1995.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://proxy.library.tamu.edu/login?url=http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=742713271&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=2945&RQT=309&VName=PQD |
| Summary: | In recent years, politically popular downsizing of government has stimulated discussions on the reduction or elimination of United States' Farm Program policies. Although earlier studies have suggested that farmers do not respond in the short-run to changes in policies, few studies have focussed on the risk implications of policy changes on the U.S. agricultural sector. This study focuses on the short-run risk implications of agricultural policy changes. The study was accomplished with a price endogenous mathematical programming sector model consisting of 12 primary and 21 secondary commodities. U.S. agricultural acreage was considered erogenous to the model. With the exogeneity, producers were not able to change their acreage allocation decisions due to changes in farm program policies, but total production varies as yields vary. To support the risk analysis, a yield distribution was developed by state and crop. In turn, a yield distribution for 1990 was constructed for crops by state. This crop yield distribution preserved intrastate and interstate crop yield correlations. A base model was constructed and verified using 1990 data to which alternative policy and risk scenarios were compared. The policy scenarios included changes in target prices and set- aside requirements as well as replacement of the farm program with the income assurance program. The risk scenario focused on the implications of increased production risk. Results indicated that all of the considered policy changes affect U.S. farmers and taxpayers in the short-run, while only set- aside changes and implementation of the income assurance program measurably changed consumer welfare. U.S. producer revenue decreased but became more stable with target price decreases and stricter set-aside requirements. Consumer welfare decreased and became more stable with stricter set- aside requirements. The consumer welfare implications of the income assurance program were specific to the underlying set- aside requirement assumptions while producers lost. This reduction in government program expenditures of these farm program changes benefitted taxpayers. Finally, results showed that producer revenue, consumer surplus, and government program expenditures became less stable with increased production risk. |
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| Item Description: | Vita. "Major Subject: Agricultural Economics". |
| Physical Description: | xii, 211 leaves : illustrations ; 28 cm. Issued also on microfiche from University Microfilms Inc. |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references. |