http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-2.xsd
economics and econometrics of seasonal cycles and business cycles
Much of the work on business cycles in the literature is
based on the use of seasonally adjusted or annual data. The
research done in this dissertation breaks with this tradition
by attempting to provide a unified explanation of the trend,
cyclical, and seasonal movements exhibited in U.S.
macroeconomic data. This is accomplished by examining the
statistical nature of the seasonal fluctuations in the data,
and then building models that incorporate these seasonals in
a manner consistent with economic theory and sound
statistical practice. These statistical models are used to
examine some of the economic relationships of interest to
macroeconomists, such as the relationship between
consumption, investment and income, and the relationship
between money demand and income. The results obtained from
these models indicate that seasonal fluctuations have
important implications for economic theory and econometric
modelling, as they differ in some cases from the results
given by similar models which are based on seasonally
adjusted data. These differences are even present at
frequencies in the data that are not commonly believed to be
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