| Abstract: | A deterministic microcomputer model was developed to assist ranch managers in the construction of the matrix that can be inputted into a linear programming model to estimate the optimal firm-level forage-livestock production system. The model is composed of three main parts namely: Main Menu, Production System, and Matrix Development. Data are inputted into the different templates in the Production System part while the matrix is developed in the Matrix Development part. Data taken from the studies conducted on the McGregor Research Station and fact sheets published by the Texas Agricultural Extension Service were used in the development of the optimal plan for the Central Texas District. Enterprises included in the model were cow-calf, stocker steer, rangeland, kleingrass, and oat pasture. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying selected inputs to the model. Increasing the forage yield to 125% of the average production year produced an optimal plan with 25% more livestock. Decreasing the forage yield to 63% of the average production yield greatly reduced animal numbers and also reduced the number of enterprises. Changing the interest rate had less effect on the optimal plan than changes in the forage production. When the interest rates increased, the cost of production also increased resulting in the subsequent reduction in the residual returns to management and profit. The number of livestock and the acreage of rangeland and tame pastures were not affected by changes in the interest rates. The stocker/feeder price ratio was altered to see how it affected the optimal plan. The management plans with a stocker/feeder price ratio of 1.37 and 1.67 differed from the base plan, but were identical to each other. When the price ratio was greater than or equal to 1.16, stocker steers were not included in the optimal plan. As the price ratio decreased, the number of stockers being recommended increased. Reducing the price ratio made the stocker enterprise more profitable than the cow-calf enterprise. The optimal plan was most sensitive to the stocker/feeder price ratio within the range from 0.89 to 1.16... |
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