Impacts of exogenously-determined variables on dairy farms : a simulation modeling approach /
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| Other Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
1989.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Link to OAKTrust copy |
| Abstract: | The dairy industry is continually impacted by changes in technology, government policy, consumer tastes and preferences, prices received and prices paid. The result is an industry where individual farms respond to change through adjustments in level of productivity, mix of inputs, scale of operation and geographic location, as well as the decision whether or not to remain in the industry. A procedure allowing analysis of such complex changes over time is simulation modeling of the dairy farm unit. The primary objective of this study was to develop a firm level analytical model for the investigation of impacts of changes in exogenously-determined variables on dairy farms. Secondary objectives included identifying representative farm datasets to be used to evaluate model performance and analyze the potential impacts on those farms of an emerging biotechnology, bovine somatotropin, under alternative government policy scenarios. This study expanded the existing farm level income tax and policy simulation model, FLIPSIM, by incorporating sections on dairy herd dynamics, dairy farm operating revenues, dairy herd feed requirements and dairy operating expenses. Ten representative farms for five milk producing regions of the United States developed to represent well-managed dairy farms using state of the art technology were described for model evaluation and use. Procedures used to evaluate model performance indicated that the model favorably represented actual behavioral and economic activities of an individual dairy farm. A deterministic simulation for the period 1983 to 1987 was used to update the 1982 representative farms in this analysis to 1987 conditions. A 100 iteration stochastic analysis for the period 1988 to 1994 assuming three levels of productivity response to BST under two alternative government policy scenarios was compared to a baseline of no adoption of BST. Adoption of BST improved the average annual net cash farm income and ending financial position for all farms. Higher levels of productivity response increased this advantage. Lower milk prices in response to anticipated higher aggregate milk production would increase the importance of successful BST adoption. |
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| Item Description: | Typescript (photocopy). Vita. "Major subject: Agricultural Economics." |
| Physical Description: | xii, 231 leaves : illustrations ; 29 cm |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references. |