Analysis of policy impacts on the U.S. cattle industry /
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| Other Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
1988.
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | ProQuest, Abstract Link to OAKTrust copy |
| Abstract: | Secondary effects from government policies on the U.S. livestock sector have received insufficient attention. Studies that have conducted policy analysis for this industry have made use of structural econometric modeling techniques. These have incorporated exogenous policy time paths. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of direct and indirect government policies on the U.S. cattle industry by incorporating endogenous policy paths. Five specific policy changes will be analyzed. Recent advances in econometric time series analysis, which are less restrictive than the traditional structural models, are applied. These techniques allow the introduction of endogenous policy variables. Initially three time series models were investigated: One unrestricted and two restricted models. By using innovation accounting techniques each model's dynamic performance was studied. A Bayesian vector autoregression was chosen to perform the policy experiments. The analysis was conducted by comparing unconditional and conditional forecasts. The impact of increased cow slaughter as a result of the Dairy Termination Program resulted in moderately lower cattle prices in the short run. Price expectations at the onset of this program were greatly exaggerated, as the results indicate. Two experiments looked at changes in the loan rate for corn. A decrease in the loan rate as set out by the 1985-FSA generated higher cattle prices in the short run but lower prices in the long run. A substantial increase in the loan rate for corn produced a considerable reduction in all cattle prices. Changes in the level of beef imports brought about moderate responses as was expected. Results from the experiments compared favorably with those from previous studies. The fact that responses were on the average less pronounced is probably due to the endogenous character of the policy shocks. The results demonstrate clearly that effects from indirect policies on the cattle industry are oftentimes more severe than from direct policies. It has been shown that forecasts made from endogenous policy shocks incorporate a more general set of dynamic interactions. Responses from these analyses may give more "complete" answers to policy questions. |
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| Item Description: | Typescript (photocopy). Vita. "Major subject: Agricultural Economics." |
| Physical Description: | xiv, 212 leaves : illustrations ; 29 cm |
| Bibliography: | Includes bibliographical references (leaves 170-175). |