| Abstract: | The anthropogenic deforestation occurring in the tropics is leading to massive environmental disruptions including the unprecedented extinction of species. To protect representative samples of remaining tropical forests governments have established national parks and equivalent reserves. However, anthropogenic deforestation of these areas continues. Tropical deforestation in parks could be reduced or at least planned for through a better understanding of deforestation patterns and trends in the park site region. This study analyzed the spread of deforestation in and around a proposed national park/Biosphere Reserve. This case study involved the development of base maps and thematic map overlays of the study area. These maps were derived from existing maps, interpretation of aerial photography, and Landsat MSS image analysis. Thematic maps developed included the following independent natural and cultural physical variables: 1) slope, 2) soils, 3) Life Zone, 4) elevation, 5) aspect, 6) proximity to water, 7) department, 8) proximity to road, 9) proximity to access, 10) proximity to city, 11) proximity to house/shelter, and 12) proximity to forested/deforested edge. These maps were divided into .25 km² grid cells. A ten percent systematic sample of the grid cells was taken. This data was entered into a computerized data base for statistical analysis. In addition, a digital map data base was developed from the map overlays for Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis. Deforestation patterns (the dependent variable) for the 1954-65 (T1) and 1977-78 (T2) time periods were compared with each of these thematic maps using logistic regression analysis. This analysis gave a correct deforestation prediction for T2 of almost 90% given information on the forested/deforested edge at T1. Information on access in T1 and the location of house/shelter in T1 gave correct predictions of deforestation in T2 of 84% and 85% respectively. Geographic information system (GIS) analysis provided spatial confirmation of these strong associations. It also provided information on those areas undergoing exceptional levels of deforestation, information critical for the planning for and management of the study area as a national park/Biosphere Reserve. |
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